The earliest realistic crewed attempt is in the 2030s. SpaceX dropped its plan to send uncrewed Starships in the late-2026 window and said in February 2026 that work toward a Mars city would begin in about five to seven years. NASA's plan uses the Moon as the proving ground first.
Earth and Mars line up for an efficient trip about every 26 months, so every slip costs two years. The windows after this one open around the turn of 2028 to 2029, in early 2031 and in 2033.
How Mars launch windows work
Earth circles the Sun faster than Mars does. The cheapest path between them, a long arc that leaves Earth's orbit and meets Mars's, only lines up for a few weeks roughly every 26 months, a couple of months before Mars is at opposition (directly opposite the Sun in our sky). Launch outside a window and you need far more fuel or far more time.
The trip takes about seven months. Perseverance launched on 30 July 2020 and landed on 18 February 2021, 203 days later. A crew can't turn straight around: they wait on Mars, often more than a year, for the next return window. That is why most mission studies plan for about two and a half to three years away from Earth.
| Launch window | Mars opposition | What is planned |
|---|---|---|
| Late 2026 | 19 February 2027 | No crew and no Starship. Japan's MMX probe to the Martian moon Phobos is scheduled to launch on 20 October 2026. NASA's twin ESCAPADE orbiters swing past Earth in November 2026 on their way to Mars orbit in 2027. |
| Late 2028 to early 2029 | 25 March 2029 | China's Tianwen-3 sample-return mission is planned to launch in 2028. ESA's Rosalind Franklin rover is planned to launch no earlier than late 2028 on a SpaceX Falcon Heavy. |
| Early 2031 | 4 May 2031 | Five years after SpaceX's February 2026 statement. |
| Spring 2033 | 27 June 2033 | Seven years after it. |
Where SpaceX stands
For years SpaceX was the most aggressive voice on Mars. In 2024 Elon Musk said the company would send five uncrewed Starships in the late-2026 window, and in May 2025 he put the odds at 50-50. In early February 2026 he said SpaceX had shifted its focus to building a self-growing city on the Moon, because "the Moon is faster," and that Mars city work would start in about five to seven years.
The rocket is moving forward. On 28 September 2026, Starship Flight 14 reached orbit for the first time after thirteen suborbital tests, deployed 26 Starlink satellites, and splashed down north of Hawaii about three hours after launch, despite losing one engine on the way up. The next steps are the ones Mars depends on: moving propellant from one Starship to another in orbit, and landing an uncrewed Starship on the Moon, which SpaceX has targeted for 2027 as part of NASA's Artemis program.
Where NASA stands
NASA's plan runs through the Moon. Artemis II flew four astronauts (Reid Wiseman, Victor Glover, Christina Koch and Canada's Jeremy Hansen) around the Moon from 1 to 11 April 2026, the first crew beyond low Earth orbit since 1972. In February 2026 NASA reshaped the next step: Artemis III, planned for mid-2027, will test the landers and new spacesuits in Earth orbit, and the first landing moves to Artemis IV, no earlier than 2028.
NASA has said for years that it wants humans on Mars in the 2030s, but it has no funded crewed Mars vehicle or mission date. On the robotic side, Curiosity and Perseverance are still working, and the ESCAPADE orbiters launched on 13 November 2025 on Blue Origin's New Glenn rocket.
Other countries
- China landed the Zhurong rover in 2021 and plans Tianwen-3 to launch in 2028 and return Mars samples to Earth around 2031.
- Europe plans the Rosalind Franklin rover, built to drill two meters down, to launch no earlier than late 2028, with NASA providing the rocket and landing engines.
- Japan plans to launch MMX on 20 October 2026 to collect a sample from Phobos and bring it home around 2031.
- The UAE has had its Hope orbiter studying Martian weather since 2021.
What has to happen first
- Refilling in orbit. A Starship can't reach Mars on one tank. Tankers have to fill it in Earth orbit, which no one has done at this scale.
- Landing heavy cargo. Perseverance weighed about a tonne. A crewed base needs many tonnes per landing, set down accurately, again and again.
- Making fuel and air on Mars. A return trip needs propellant made from Martian ice and air. Perseverance's MOXIE experiment made 122 grams of oxygen from the Martian atmosphere between 2021 and 2023, a proof of principle at tiny scale.
- Radiation. Curiosity's detector measured that the cruise alone, out and back, would expose a crew to about 0.66 sievert, more than NASA's current career limit of 600 millisieverts.
- Living for years without resupply. Power, water, food and repairs for two and a half years. Our deep dive on living off Mars covers how settlers would make power, water and metal locally.
Where the first crews would land
The answer most studies reach is the northern mid-latitudes: flat plains between about 35 and 48 degrees north where water ice sits a meter or two below the surface. SpaceX's published candidate regions, including Arcadia Planitia, Phlegra Montes, Erebus Montes and Amazonis Planitia, are all in or near that band. Our research paper, where the first Martians will live, scores twelve regions and ranks Arcadia Planitia first.
Red Homestead leaves those landing regions alone: the claim explorer blocks claims inside SpaceX's four candidate regions, three human exploration zones NASA has studied, and the 13 lander and rover sites. The ground around them is open to claim. Can you buy land on Mars? explains what a claim is and what it is not.
The timeline as of October 2026
| Milestone | Status |
|---|---|
| Starship reaches orbit | Done on 28 September 2026 (Flight 14) |
| Propellant transfer between ships in orbit | Not yet demonstrated; next on SpaceX's list |
| Uncrewed Starship lands on the Moon | Targeted for 2027 |
| First crewed Artemis landing | Artemis IV, no earlier than 2028 |
| Mars samples returned to Earth | China's Tianwen-3, around 2031 |
| Uncrewed Starship to Mars | No date; SpaceX says Mars work begins in about five to seven years from 2026 |
| First crew on Mars | No date on any funded plan; the 2030s at the earliest |
We update this page when a program changes its plans. For daily headlines, see our Mars news feed.
Keep reading
Sources
- NBC News: SpaceX prioritizes a city on the Moon over Mars (February 2026)
- Al Jazeera: Musk gives 50-50 odds for a late-2026 Mars flight (May 2025)
- Spaceflight Now: Starship Flight 14 (28 September 2026)
- NASA: Artemis II
- Scientific American: NASA moves the first Artemis landing to 2028
- NASA: ESCAPADE launch
- Space.com: China's Tianwen-3 on track for 2028
- JAXA: MMX launch date and NASA: support for ESA's Rosalind Franklin mission
- NASA: Perseverance mission facts
- BBC Sky at Night: Mars opposition 2027 and ALPO: the 2031 apparition